Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO22 FMEE 070000 CCA *************** CORRECTIVE ************** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 07/01/2008 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 001/07 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 07/01/2008 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7 1004 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2S / 56.4E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS UP TO 300NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/20KT REACHING LOCALLY 25KT NEAR THE CENTER AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/01/07 AT 12 UTC: 18.4S / 56.8E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2008/01/08 AT 00 UTC: 19.8S / 56.7E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, DISSIPATING. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CORRECTIVE FOR THE MOVMENT THIS WEAK CIRCULATION HAS A POOR POTRENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION. IT GENERATES NEVERTHELESS VERY BAD WEATHER CONDITIONS NORTH OF MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS. SITUATION IS POORLY ANALYZED BY NUMERICAL MODELS, ACTUAL FORECAST LOCATION AND INTENSITY ARE RATHER UNCERTAIN. ONLY THE FRENCH MODEL ALADIN ANALYZES THIS LOW. THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.