Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO22 FMEE 071200 CCA *************** CORRECTIVE ************** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 07/01/2008 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 002/07 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 07/01/2008 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 7 1004 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9S / 56.9E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS UP TO 300NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/20KT REACHING LOCALLY 25KT NEAR THE CENTER AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/01/08 AT 00 UTC: 19.2S / 57.1E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2008/01/08 AT 12 UTC: 20.4S / 56.6E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THIS WEAK CIRCULATION HAS A POOR POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION. IT GENERATES NEVERTHELESS VERY BAD WEATHER CONDITIONS NORTH OF MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS WEAKENED, THE CENTER IS NOW LOCATED UNDER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF CONVECTION WHICH HAS INTENSIFYED DURING LAST HOURS. LOCATION OF THE CENTRER REMAINS DIFFICULT AS THE SYSTEM IS WEAK AND OF SMALL SIZE. THIS LOW IS POORLY ANALYZED BY NUMERICAL MODELS, ACTUAL FORECAST LOCATION AND INTENSITY ARE RATHER UNCERTAIN. ONLY THE FRENCH MODEL ALADIN ANALYZES THIS LOW, BUT WITH STRONGER INTENSITY. ENVIRONNEMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAIN MODERATE, WITH A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, BUT NO LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE SOUTH. NO INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.