Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO22 FMEE 080000 SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 08/01/2008 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 003/07 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 08/01/2008 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7 1003 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.5S / 55.5E (TWENTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 350 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/20KT AND MODERATE SEAS LOCALLY REACHING 25KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/01/08 AT 12 UTC: 21.6S / 55.8E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2008/01/09 AT 00 UTC: 23.0S / 55.8E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THIS WEAK CIRCULATION HAS A POOR POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION. IT GENERATES NEVERTHELESS VERY BAD WEATHER CONDITIONS NORTH OF MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS AND THIS RAINY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SOON ON REUNION'S ISLAND AND MAURITIUS. THE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF CONVECTION BUT ITS LOCATION REMAINS DIFFICULT AS THE SYSTEM IS WEAK AND OF SMALL SIZE. THIS LOW IS POORLY ANALYZED BY NUMERICAL MODELS, ACTUAL FORECAST POSITIONS AND INTENSITIES ARE RATHER UNCERTAIN. FORECASTED ENVIRONNEMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE UNDERGOING A MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND NO LOW LEVEL POLEWARD INFLOW. NO INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.