Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO22 FMEE 080600 SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 08/01/2008 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 004/07 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 08/01/2008 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7 1004 HPA POSITION: 20.2S / 55.1E (TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 350 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/20KT AND MODERATE SEAS LOCALLY REACHING 25KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/01/08 AT 18 UTC: 20.7S / 54.5E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2008/01/09 AT 06 UTC: 21.8S / 53.9E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CENTRE IS RELOCATED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARDS. THIS WEAK SYSTEM WITH A SMALL SIZE EST RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BAD WEATHER OVER THE MASCARENES AREA. THE LLC IS POORLY DEFINED BUT THE CENTRE CAN BE DETECTED THANKS TO THE RADAR AT LA REUNION. THUNDERY ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THIS SYSTEM IS NORTHEASTWARDS AWAY FROM THE CENTRE DUE THE UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT. STRONGER WINDS EXIST IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THIS LOW IS POORLY ANALYZED BY NUMERICAL MODELS, CURRENT TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE RATHER UNCERTAIN. THIS SYSTEM HAS A POOR POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT AS FORECASTED ENVIRONNEMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE: MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, NO LOW LEVEL POLEWARD INFLOW. THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.