Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO22 FMEE 310000 SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 31/01/2008 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 024/08 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 31/01/2008 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (EX-FAME) 997 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6S / 53.7E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 350 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WHITHIN 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/01/31 AT 12 UTC: 22.2S / 54.5E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2008/02/01 AT 00 UTC: 21.3S / 56.1E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.5- LATEST FIX BASED ON BOTH MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE DOPPLER RADAR OF LA REUNION UNTIL 18:12Z SHOWED THAT EX-FAME MAY HAVE TAKEN A MORE EASTWARDS TRACK. SINCE THAT TIME, CENTER IS LESS AND LESS VISIBLE ON RADAR IMAGERY. SO MORE INCERTITUDE IS GIVEN IN THAT FIX. IR SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS STILL SOUTH OF THE LLCC. NORTHNORTHWESTERN SHEAR LOOK A LITTLE BIT STRONGER AS AN ARC OF CIRRUS IS CLEARLY SEEN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, SEEMS TO SAY THAT WEAKENING IS ON THE WAY. HOWEVER AS LATEST SCATERROMETRIC DATA STILL DISPLAY SOME UNFLAGGED 30 KT WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTER AND IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI CIRCLE, INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 30 KT. EX-FAME IS EXPECTED DRIFTING GLOBALLY ON ITS SLOW EASTWARDS TRACK AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DUE TO STRONGER WINDSHEAR, WEAKER LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND AN INTERACTION WITH MOUNTAINS OF REUNION ISLANDS.