Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO20 FMEE 301200 CCA *************** CORRECTIVE ************** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 30/01/2008 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 017/09 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 30/01/2008 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GULA) 990 HPA POSITION: 16.9S / 60.4E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS MAINLI IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 250 NM FROM THE CENTER. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 60 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND REACHING LOCALLY 45KT IN THIS EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/01/31 AT 00 UTC: 18.9S / 60.1E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2008/01/31 AT 12 UTC: 21.3S / 59.2E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: DUE TO ITS SMALL SIZE, GULA HASN'T RESISTED TO UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (LACK OF ENERGY DUE TO COOLER SST AND EASTSOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IN HIGH LEVEL). ESTIMATED AT THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY, GULA IS MORE AND MORE DIZORGANIZED. ITS MINIMAL CENTRAL SEA LEVEL PRESSURE HAS FILLED UP OF NEAR 40 HPA DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. EVEN IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (LESS SHEARED AND SST AT 27 TO 28 CELSIUS DEGREES), THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN SO IMPORTANT THAT IT SHOULDN'T APPROACH CLOSE TO SISTERS ISLANDS AT MORE THAN THE TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY.