Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
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WTIO22 FMEE 310000 SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 31/01/2008 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 019/09 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 31/01/2008 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GULA) 988 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.6S / 59.7E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS MAINLI IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 250 NM FROM THE CENTER. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/01/31 AT 12 UTC: 21.3S / 57.9E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2008/02/01 AT 00 UTC: 23.4S / 56.5E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: GULA IS NOW WELL ESTABLISHED UNDER THE STEERING FLOW GENERATED BY THE MIDLEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE EAST. 06Z AND 12Z NWP MODELS RUN PRESENT TWO KIND OF SOLUTIONS. AMERICAN MODEL CONSENSUS, GFDN AND UKMO TAKE A MORE SOUTHWARDS COMPONENT AS ECMWF, EPS AND FRENCH MESO SCALE MODEL ALADIN KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A SOUTSOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK. GIVEN THE RECENT EVOLUTION, IT THE SECOND SOLUTION THAT IS KEPT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ONTHIS TRACK GULA SHOULD PASS JUST EAST OF MAURITIUS LATER TODAY. IT COULD REGAIN SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STATUS AT THIS TIME. IF THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OFF SHORE, ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION ON THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THESE CONDITIONS ON SHORE ...