Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO20 FMEE 041800 SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 04/02/2008 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 003/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 04/02/2008 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10 998 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0S / 80.5E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WHITHIN 100NM AROUND THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS, REACHING LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT NEAR THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/02/05 AT 06 UTC: 13.2S / 81.1E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H, VALID 2008/02/05 AT 18 UTC: 13.4S / 81.9E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPPED OVER THE SYSTEM SINCE THE EVENING. QUICKSCAT PASS AT 12:35Z SHOWS SOME UNFLAGGED 30 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANT. SO INTENSITY IS CLOSED TO THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS. HOWEVER, AS THIS NEW BURST OF CONVECTION IS QUITE RECENT, MAX WINDS IS KEPT AT 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, BUT THIS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE. SO THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO REGULARY INTENSIFY AND TRACK GLOBALLY SLOWLY EASTSOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF A MID LEVEL EQUATORIAL RIDGE