Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO22 FMEE 241200 SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 24/02/2008 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 049/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 24/02/2008 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10 (EX-HONDO) 1002 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.5S / 52.5E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 13 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WHEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 130 NM AROUND THE CENTER MAINLY IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 220 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONGEST WINDS EXIST FOR THE MOMENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THEY PROGRESSIVELY EXTEND TO THE SOUTH, THEN THE SOUTHWEST, DUE TO THE BUILDING HIGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/02/25 AT 00 UTC: 27.7S / 51.2E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2008/02/25 AT 12 UTC: 30.1S / 51.9E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: 25/30KT WINDS COULD PERSIST WHERE THE GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES IS THE STRONGEST (SOUTHEAST FOR THE MOMENT, TURNING TO THE SOUTH THEN THE SOUTHWEST AT MEDIUM RANGE) AFTER HAVING TRACKED OVER REUNION ISLAND , THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED, AND IS NOW TRACKING OVER SEAS WHOSE TEMPERATURES ARE LOWER THAT 26.5 CELSIUS DEGREES, INHIBATING ANY RE-INTESIFICATION (MOREOVER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN LOW AND HIGH LEVELS ARE NEUTRAL TO UNFAVORABLE). IT SHOULD TRACK SOUTHSOUHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THEN CURVE OVER A PARABOLIC TRACK AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST, FILLING UP SLOWLY, BUT WHITHOUT EVACUATING POLEWARDS. IT SHOULD GO UP AT MEDIUM RANGE ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A FOLLOWING SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. JAMMED BETWEEN THOSE TWO RIDGES, THE RESIDUAL VORTEX SHOULD BE ISOLATED NEAR BY 30S/60E ON THE 28. THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ISSUED ABOUT THAT SYSTEM WHICH REMAINS CLOSELY MONITORED.