Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO20 FMEE 090600 SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 09/02/2008 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 009/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 09/02/2008 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IVAN) 975 HPA POSITION: 15.8S / 63.0E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: NORTH 2 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WHEATHER EXIST WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 AND VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/02/09 AT 18 UTC: 15.5S / 63.1E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2008/02/10 AT 06 UTC: 15.3S / 63.2E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: VERY POOR EVOLUTION IN ITS MOTION AND INTENSITY. THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE TRACKED VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARDS DURING LAST HOURS. DUE TO VERY POOR AGREEMENT IN NUMERICAL MPODELS FORECASTS, RATHER STRONG UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY.