Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO22 FMEE 151800 PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 15/02/2008 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 035/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 15/02/2008 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IVAN) 966 HPA POSITION: 16.2S / 54.1E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WHEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 180 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 300 NM. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. STROM FORCE WINDS 50/60KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNEDR SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/02/16 AT 06 UTC: 16.7S / 52.5E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H, VALID 2008/02/16 AT 18 UTC: 17.3S / 51.3E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: IVAN IS INTENSIFYING PROGRESSIVELY, TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS TRACKED OVER TROMELIN ISLAND (LOCATED EXACTLY BY 15.88S.54.52E) NEAR BY 1500Z, WHERE IT HAS BEEN RECORDED 969,2HPA AT 1500Z (WHAT JUSTIFIES ESTIMATED PRESSURE). MAX SURFACE WINDS (10 MIN AVERAGE) HAVE BEEN MEASURED DURING THE FIRST PASS OF THE EYE WALL AT 1300Z AT 52KT (GUSTS 80KT, FROM THE SOUTHEAST, 150 DEGREES DIRECTION). THE ISLAND HAS REMAINED LESS THAN 3 HOURS IN A RATHER QUITE WINDS AREA (WITH WEAKER RAINFALLS). WE DON'T HAVE WINDS DATA ANYMORE AFTER 1530 UTC (MOMENT OF THE CHANGE OF DIRECTION, WITH THE SECOND EYEWALL PASS). THE EYE IS ALREADY WELL DEFINED (35NM DIAMETER) IN LOW AND MI-LEVEL, AND IT IS STARTING TO EXTEND TO HIGHER LEVELS (ON INFRA RED IMAGERY).