Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO22 FMEE 161200 PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 16/02/2008 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 038/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 16/02/2008 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IVAN) 941 HPA POSITION: 16.5S / 51.9E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WHEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 400 NM WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. STROM FORCE WINDS 50/60KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND "ONLY" 90NM IN THE NORTHWESTER, QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/02/17 AT 00 UTC: 17.0S / 50.9E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H, VALID 2008/02/17 AT 12 UTC: 17.6S / 49.4E, OVERLAND. OTHER INFORMATIONS: IVAN IS INTESIFYING, WITH AN EYE OF 30 NM DIAMETER CONSOLIDATING WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTAIN AND DECREASING SHEAR). IT IS EXPECTED TO INCURVED WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS IN THE NEXT HOURS, OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TOWARDS MALAGASY COASTS. IVAN IS A SERIOUS THREAT FOR THE CENTRAL EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. IT IS EXPECTED TO LAND FALL IN THE VINICITY OF TAMATAVE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.