Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO22 FMEE 161800 PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 16/02/2008 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 039/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 16/02/2008 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IVAN) 930 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7S / 51.1E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WHEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. STROM FORCE WINDS 50/60KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/02/17 AT 06 UTC: 17.1S / 49.9E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H, VALID 2008/02/17 AT 18 UTC: 17.6S / 48.3E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, OVERLAND. OTHER INFORMATIONS: IVAN IS INTESIFYING PROGRESSIVELY SINCE 48 HOURS. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS. HURRICANE IS FORECASTED TO MAKE ITS LANDFALL NEAR THE HARBOR CITY OF TAMATAVE (A LITTLE BIT IN ITS NORTH) ON SUNDAY BETWEEN 0600Z AND 0900Z WITH MAXIMUM 10MN AVERAGE WINDS IN THE EYEWALL AT ABOUT 110KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 155 KT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS SHOULD CONCERN THE ISLAND OF SAINTE-MARIE BEFORE 0300Z.