Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO22 FMEE 170000 PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 17/02/2008 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 040/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 17/02/2008 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IVAN) 930 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0S / 50.5E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WHEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 280 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 360 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. STROM FORCE WINDS 50/60KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/02/17 AT 12 UTC: 17.5S / 49.1E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H, VALID 2008/02/18 AT 00 UTC: 18.2S / 47.4E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, OVERLAND. OTHER INFORMATIONS: IVAN IS EXPECTED TO KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS. HURRICANE IS FORECASTED TO MAKE ITS LANDFALL IN THE NORTH OF THE HARBOR CITY OF TAMATAVE (NEAR FENOARIVO-ATSINANANA) ON SUNDAY BETWEEN 0600Z AND 0900Z WITH MAXIMUM 10MN AVERAGE WINDS IN THE EYEWALL AT ABOUT 110KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 155 KT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS (MORE THAN 65KT WITH GUSTS MORE THAN 90KT) SHOULD CONCERN THE ISLAND OF SAINTE-MARIE WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS AND THEN HOURS AFTER HOURS THE ALL COASTLINE FROM ANTANAMBE IN THE NORTH TO TOAMASINA IN THE SOUTH EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 30 NM OVERLAND. AFTER THE LANFALL, WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEAKENING RAPIDLY BUT NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS SOULD OCCUR OVER SEA BETWEEN 18S AND 22S UP TO 100 NM FROM THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.