Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO24 FMEE 170600 PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 17/02/2008 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 041/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 17/02/2008 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (IVAN) 935 HPA POSITION: 17.2S / 49.5E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WHEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 300 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. STROM FORCE WINDS 50/60KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/02/17 AT 18 UTC: 17.7S / 48.1E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, OVERLAND. 24H, VALID 2008/02/18 AT 06 UTC: 18.4S / 46.6E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, OVERLAND. OTHER INFORMATIONS: IVAN HAS REACHED SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND AROUND 0200Z AND KEEP ON TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS THE EYEWALL HAS REACHED THE EASTERN COAST AROUND 0400Z, AND THE CENTRE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD LANDFALL NORTH OF FENOARIVO -NORTH OF TAMATAVE- WITHIN HALF AN HOUR. MAXIMUM 10MN AVERAGE WINDS IN THE EYEWALL AT ABOUT 95 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 130 KT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS (MORE THAN 65KT WITH GUSTS MORE THAN 90KT) SHOULD CONCERN THE COASTLINE FROM ANTANAMBE IN THE NORTH TO FENOARIVO IN THE SOUTH EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 30 NM OVERLAND. AFTER THE LANDFALL, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY BUT NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS SHOULD STILL OCCUR OVER WATER BETWEEN 16S AND 20S UP TO 100 NM FROM THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.