Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
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WTIO24 FMEE 210000 CCA *************** CORRECTIVE ************** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 21/02/2008 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 045/11 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 21/02/2008 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: FILLING DEPRESSION 11 (EX-IVAN) 998 HPA POSITION: 24.0S / 42.0E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WHEATHER EXISTS FAR FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 400NM FROM THE CENTER ONLY IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 10/20KT, REACHING 25/30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE FAR FROM THE CENTER, IE BETWEEN 150NM AND 250NM FROM THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/02/21 AT 12 UTC: 23.7S / 41.4E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, FILLING UP. 24H, VALID 2008/02/22 AT 00 UTC: 23.4S / 41.0E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, FILLING UP. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE RESIDUAL CIRCULATION OF IVAN HAS CAME BACK OVER SEAS. IT IS A WIDE CIRCULATION, TOTALLY EXPOSED (ELONGATED FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH), OF A WEAK INTENSITY, GENERATING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ONLY FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTH. MINIMAL SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS LOW, BUT ASSOCIATED GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK DUE TO THE FACT THAT ENVIRONMENTAL SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ARE ALSO LOW OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THIS WIDE CIRCULATION IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, WITH A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION, WHITHOUT DEEPENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THEN TRACK SOUTHWARD BEYOND THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEM DOESN'T JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.