Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO22 FMEE 061200 PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 06/03/2008 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 008/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 06/03/2008 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (JOKWE) 975 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8S / 46.7E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, AND BETWEEN 280 NM AND 500 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT WITHIN SOME THUNDERSTRORMY ULTRA-PERIPHERAL BANDS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. STROM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/03/07 AT 00 UTC: 14.3S / 44.6E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H, VALID 2008/03/07 AT 12 UTC: 14.7S / 42.8E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THIS LITTLE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFY UNDERGOING A MID AND UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINED VERY WELL DEFINED DESPITE THE CROSS OVER NORTHERN MALAGASY RELIEF LAST NIGHT AND ALSO WITHIN A RATHER FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT. IT SHOWS A IRREGULAR EYE SINCE 0730Z. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSIT SOUTH OF MAYOTTE ISLAND (PROBABLY A LITTLE BIT MORE THAN 100 KM OFFSHORE ) NEXT NIGHT. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND TO RECURVE SOUTHWARDS ALONG MOZAMBICAN COASTLINE THEREAFTER. UNDERGOING A REMAINING FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT, SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. MSLP IS HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR THIS INTENSITY STAGE (CONFIRMED NY MEASURE DURING THE CROSS NEAR DIEGO AND NOSY-BE STATIONS)