Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO22 FMEE 061800 PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 06/03/2008 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 009/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 06/03/2008 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (JOKWE) 975 HPA POSITION: 14.2S / 46.0E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING LOCALLY WITHIN PERIPHERICAL AND ULTRA-PERIPHERICAL SPIRAL BANDS UP TO 230 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, AND BETWEEN 130 NM AND 500 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. STROM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/03/07 AT 06 UTC: 14.9S / 44.0E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H, VALID 2008/03/07 AT 18 UTC: 15.7S / 42.3E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THIS SMALL SYSTEM IS BARELY A CYCLONE, WITH A SMALL EYE (15NM DIAMETER), AND A POOR EXTENSION OF STRONG WINDS AND CENTRAL THUNDERSTORM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. NEVERTHELESS, ULTRA-PERIPHERIC BANDS CAN GENERATE HEAVY RAINFALLS FAR FROM THE CENTER (AS NOW, BETWEEN BESSALAMPY AND MORONDAVE). JOKWE SHOULD TRANSIT SOUTHSOUTHEAST THE CLOSEST OF MAYOTTE ISLAND AT NEAR 150KM AT 2000 Z. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND TO CURVE SOUTHWARDS OFFSHORE MOZAMBICAN COASTLINE AFTER. REMAINING IN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT, SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. MSLP IS HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR THIS INTENSITY STAGE.