Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
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WTIO24 FMEE 121800 SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 12/03/2008 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 033/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 12/03/2008 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JOKWE) 980 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.7S / 40.1E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 350 MN IN THE EASTERN SECTOR. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 45 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/03/13 AT 06 UTC: 25.7S / 39.9E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2008/03/13 AT 18 UTC: 25.3S / 39.6E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CONVECTION HAS REBUILT OVER THE CENTER AT THE BEGINING OF DAY, MAKING A STOP IN WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, . MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH IS REBUILDING, SYSTEM IS THERFORE QUSI-STATIONNARY SINCE 1000Z. IT IS HOWEVER EXPECTED TO BECOME UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL HIGHS CENTERED OVER ZIMBABWE AND SHOULD RECURVE NORTHWESTWARDS BEYOND 12 TO 24 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BEYOND 24 TO 36 HOURS , SYSTEM SHOULD THERFORE GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE FUTURE TRACK (BEYOND 36 HOURS ESPECIALLY) OF THIS SYSTEM.