Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO20 FMEE 070000 SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 07/03/2008 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 001/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 07/03/2008 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13 1000 HPA POSITION: 12.3S / 89.0E (TWELVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS UP TO 200NM FROM THE CENTER ONLY IN THE EASTERN SECTOR. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25KT AND ROUGH SEAS. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/03/07 AT 12 UTC: 12.4S / 87.9E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2008/03/08 AT 00 UTC: 12.6S / 86.8E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LLCC IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED DUE TO AN IMPORTANT EASTWARD VERTICAL WINDSHEAR GENERATED BY THE RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE MSLP IS ESTMATED ACCORDING TO THE 53581 BUOY DATA. THE LOCATION OF THE LLCCC IS ESTIMATED BY EXTRPOLATION OF THE LOCATION OVER THE MICRO-WAVE IMAGERIES AT 1912Z (AQUA), 1827Z (TRMM), 1558Z (METOP). THIS SYETEM SHOULD TRACK GLOBALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS OVER A PARABOLIC TRACK ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A STRONG AND STATIONNARY MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE VERTICALWINDSHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN ON AND BEYOND THE 08, ALLOWING A CLEAR INTENSIFICATION.