Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO22 FMEE 211800 SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 21/03/2008 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 004/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 21/03/2008 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14 996 HPA POSITION: 15.6S / 59.9E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN 220 NM FROM THE CENTER MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, UP TO 90 NM FROM THE CENTER, AND VERY LOCALLY GALE FORCE WINDS 35KT WIHIN SQUALLS LINES. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/03/22 AT 06 UTC: 16.1S / 58.7E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H, VALID 2008/03/22 AT 18 UTC: 16.2S / 57.6E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES REMAIN LOW AND THE GRADIENT IS WEAK IN THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION (SO WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE RATHER WEAK). THE MAIN CENTER IS NOT VERY "STABLE", THAT MEANS THAT A RE-LOCATIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THIS BEGINNING OF LIFE. IT IS ESTIMATED FOR THE MOMENT ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE ACTIVE CLOUD CLUSTER. THE MSLP IS ESTIMATED AT 996 HPA, REFEERRING TO ST-BRANDON SLP 997,8 HPA AT 1200UTC. GALE FORCE WINDS EXIST ONLY IN THE SOUTH, RATHER FAR FROM THE CENTER (DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES) AND WITHIN THE MOST ACTIVE CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND (NOTE THAT 37 KT 10 MIN AVERAGE WINDS, WITH GUSTS AT 50KT, HAVE BEEN MESEARED AT 1500 Z AT ST-BRANDON ISLAND IN THIS BAND ) ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.