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B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
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WTIO22 FMEE 221200
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 22/03/2008 AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 7/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 22/03/2008 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 14 (LOLA) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1S / 58.5E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTER.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2008/03/23 AT 00 UTC:
16.3S / 57.4E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
24H, VALID 2008/03/23 AT 12 UTC:
16.5S / 56.5E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE CENTER IS ESTIMATED NEAR NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, UNDERGOING A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROPICAL EASTERLY JET (TEJ).

WINDS , ACCORDING TO 0242 QUIKSCAT DATA, ARE EXTENDING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE UNDER DEEP CONVECTION AND DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE UNDER THE TIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.