Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO22 FMEE 241200 SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 24/03/2008 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 015/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 24/03/2008 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14 (EX-LOLA) 998 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6S / 56.1E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTH-EAST 4 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 320 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND LOCALLY WITHIN A PERIPHERAL BAND BETWEEN 250 AND 300 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTER , VERY LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS UP TO 150 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/03/25 AT 00 UTC: 13.7S / 56.4E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2008/03/25 AT 12 UTC: 14.7S / 56.6E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: WINDS REACH VERY LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE EXCLUSIVELY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO GRADIANT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. CENTER IS TOTALLY EXPOSED AND DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MAINLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. SYSTEM HAS TRACKED NORTHWARDS THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS DURING THE LAST 18 HOURS UNDERGOING A MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN MALAGASY. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, A DEEP AND BROAD POLAR TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES ARCHIPELAGO, THEREFORE EX-LOLA IS EXPECTED TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS. UNDERGOING TEMPORARELY BETTER ENVIRONEMENTAL CONDITIONS, SYSTEM SHOULD SLIGHTLY RE-INTENSIFY.