Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO22 FMEE 251200 SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 25/03/2008 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 019/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 25/03/2008 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14 (EX-LOLA) 999 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8S / 56.3E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 3 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDS UP TO 280 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR, AND LOCALLY UP TO 500 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTER , REACHING VERY LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS ONLY IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR BETWEEN 170 AND 270 MN IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR ONLY. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/03/26 AT 00 UTC: 16.9S / 56.4E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H, VALID 2008/03/26 AT 12 UTC: 18.3S / 56.8E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE CENTER OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN LIGHTLY RELOCATED EAST OF THE PREVIOUS LOCATION AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INTENSITY. THE CIRCULATION IS WEAK AND MORE AND MORE BADLY DEFINED, ALMOST-STATIONNARY DURING ALMOST THE LAST 36 HOURS, AND IS TOTALLY EXPOSED NORTH OF THE THUNDERY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WHICH IS PUSHED SOUTHWARDS. THIS THUNDERY ACTIVITY REMAINS VERY FLUCTUATING IN SPATIAL COVERAGE AND TIME. WINDS ARE WEAK NEAR THE CENTER, MORE SUSTAINED SOUTHSOUTHEASTWARDS DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THEY ARE ESTIMATED ACCORDING TO THE METOP.ASCAT DATA AT 0503Z. WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, A DEEP AND BROAD POLAR TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT IN THE SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES ARCHIPELAGO ; IT SHOULD ATTRACT EX-LOLA TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES.