Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO22 FMEE 251800 SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 25/03/2008 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 020/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 25/03/2008 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14 (EX-LOLA) 1000 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1S / 56.3E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 3 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTER , REACHING VERY LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS BETWEEN 120 AND 250 MN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/03/26 AT 06 UTC: 17.4S / 56.6E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2008/03/26 AT 18 UTC: 19.0S / 57.2E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE CIRCULATION IS WEAK AND MORE AND MORE POORLY DEFINED. HEAVY RAINY AND THUNDERY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS IS PUSHED FAR IN THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, A DEEP AND BROAD POLAR TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT IN THE SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES ARCHIPELAGO ; IT SHOULD ATTRACT EX-LOLA TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES ENVIRONMENT IS FORECASTED TO BE MORE AND MORE UNFAVOURABLE, THEREFORE RE-INTENSIFICATION BEFORE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS NOT EXPECTED.