Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO22 FMEE 260000 SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 26/03/2008 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 21/14 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 26/03/2008 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14 (EX-LOLA) 1000 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4S / 56.7E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND ALSO BETWEEN 200 NM AND 400 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT WITHIN A PERIPHERAL BAND. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTER , REACHING VERY LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS BETWEEN 120 AND 250 MN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/03/26 AT 12 UTC: 19.2S / 57.1E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2008/03/27 AT 00 UTC: 20.9S / 58.0E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE CIRCULATION IS WEAK AND MORE AND MORE POORLY DEFINED. HEAVY RAINY AND THUNDERY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FLUCTUATING BUT NOW MORE CLOSED TO THE LOW LEVEL CENTER PROBABLY DUE TO THE USUAL NIGHT CONVECTIVE BURST. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HOWEVER STAYS MAINLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND HEAVY RAIN SHOULD MORE INTENSIFY OVER MAURITIUS ISLAND WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS. LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS ACCELERATED SOUTHWARDS WITHIN THE RECENT PAST HOURS TOWARDS A DEEP AND BROAD POLAR TROUGH IN THE SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES ARCHIPELAGO. ENVIRONMENT IS FORECASTED TO BE MORE AND MORE UNFAVOURABLE, THEREFORE RE-INTENSIFICATION BEFORE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS NOT EXPECTED.