Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO20 FMEE 161200 CCA *************** CORRECTIVE ************** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 16/10/2008 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 001/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 16/10/2008 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 1002 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.1S / 69.2E (SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXIST WITHIN 300 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, MORE ACTIVE IN THE SOUTHWEST. WIDE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25KT AROUND THE CENTER, REACHING LOCALLY 30KT (AND EVEN 35KT) IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/10/17 AT 00 UTC: 6.6S / 69.0E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H, VALID 2008/10/17 AT 12 UTC: 7.1S / 68.7E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. OTHER INFORMATIONS: EVEN IF DEEP CONVECTION STILL DEPENDS ON THE DIURNAL CYCLE (ENHANCING DURING THE NIGHT AND WEAKENING DURING THE DAY), THE IMPROVING ORGANIZATION (WITH COMPACT CURVED BAND PATTERN) HAS PERSISTED RATHER WELL DURING THE DAY. THE SYSTEM IS ORGANIZING AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS IMPROVING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A LIGHT INTENSIFICATION. AT THIS STAGE, THE INTESITY OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.