Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO20 FMEE 161800 SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 16/10/2008 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 002/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 16/10/2008 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 1002 HPA POSITION: 5.7S / 68.8E (FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXIST WITHIN 110 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, MAINLY WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, AND LOCALLY UP TO 200 NM. WIDE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25KT AROUND THE CENTER, REACHING LOCALLY 30KT (AND EVEN 35KT) IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/10/17 AT 06 UTC: 6.0S / 68.5E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2008/10/17 AT 18 UTC: 6.6S / 68.0E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. OTHER INFORMATIONS: EVEN IF DEEP CONVECTION STILL DEPENDS ON THE DIURNAL CYCLE (ENHANCING DURING THE NIGHT AND WEAKENING DURING THE DAY), CONVECTION HAS CLEARLY INCREASE IN THE END OF DAY, THE SYSTEM IS ORGANIZING AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS IMPROVING. HOWEVER THE CENTER REMAINS IN THE NORTH-EASTERN EDGE OF CONVECTION DUE TO MODERATE EAST-NORTH-EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A LIGHT INTENSIFICATION. AT THIS STAGE, THE INTESITY OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.