Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO20 FMEE 180000 SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 18/10/2008 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 007/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 18/10/2008 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 1001 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.1S / 68.8E (EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 370 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND ALSO LOCALLY UP TO 450 NM IN THE EASTERN SECTOR. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25KT AND ROUGH SEAS AROUND THE CENTER LOCALLY REACHING 30/35 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT BETWEEN 130 NM AND 200 NM. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/10/18 AT 12 UTC: 9.6S / 68.2E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H, VALID 2008/10/19 AT 00 UTC: 10.8S / 66.8E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THUNDERLY ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THE SYSTEM IS SOUTHWESTERN AWAY FROM THE ESTIMATED CENTRE DUE A PERSISTANT EAST-NORTH-EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. RECENT SATELLITE DATA CONFIRM THAT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER DIDN'T REACH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT ANYMORE. 30/35 KT EXISTS HOWEVER FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ALLOW A RATHER SLOW INTENSIFICATION. SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS BUT IS EXPECTED SOON RECURVING SOUTHWESTWARDS.