Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO20 FMEE 201200 SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 20/10/2008 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 017/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 20/10/2008 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ASMA) 990 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.0S / 61.3E (TWELVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 6 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 300 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40KT, LOCALLY 45 KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 100 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/10/21 AT 00 UTC: 11.8S / 59.6E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2008/10/21 AT 12 UTC: 11.6S / 57.6E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: AFTER THE INTENSIFICATION LAST NIGHT, THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED DURING THE DAY. DESPITE THE DECREASING NORTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT - VERTICAL WINDSHEAR-, AND THE RATHER GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW -DIVERGENCE, THE RATHER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CAN ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UP TO TAU 24, BUT BEYOND, OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL BECOMES TOO LIMITED. STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRLE DUE THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THIS SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARDS.