Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO20 FMEE 201800 CCA *************** CORRECTIVE ************** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 20/10/2008 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 018/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 20/10/2008 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ASMA) 993 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.0S / 61.4E (TWELVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST 3 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 300 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40KT, LOCALLY 45 KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 50 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 300 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, MAINLY IIN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/10/21 AT 06 UTC: 11.7S / 59.3E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H, VALID 2008/10/21 AT 18 UTC: 11.5S / 56.7E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED DURING THE DAY. A MODERATE NORTH- NORTHEASTERN CONSTRAINTE HAS SHEARED THE SYSTEM. THE CENTER IS NOW LOCATED NORTH TO THE DEEP CONVECTION. DESPITE THE WAITED DECREASING NORTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT - VERTICAL WINDSHEAR-, AND THE RATHER GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW -DIVERGENCE, THE RATHER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION. STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRLE DUE THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. ACCORDING TO THE BOUY 53579, (999.6HPA AT 13UTC BY 12.4S/60.8E) THE MSLP NEAR THE CENTER IS ESTIMATED UPPER THAN IN THE DVORAK SCALE THIS SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARDS.