Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO22 FMEE 210600 SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 21/10/2008 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 020/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 21/10/2008 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (EX-ASMA) 997 HPA POSITION: 12.1S / 59.3E (TWELVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDS UP FAR FROM THE CENTER, PARTICULARY UP TO 350 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 250 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, AND ALSO THE GALE FORCE WINDS 35KT FAR FROM THE CENTER BETWEEN 180NM AND 240NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/10/21 AT 18 UTC: 12.1S / 56.8E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H, VALID 2008/10/22 AT 06 UTC: 12.1S / 54.0E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY UNDER THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF UNFAVORABLE FACTORS : LACK OF OCEAN CONTENT HEAT (TOO COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPARATURES, AT THE ORDER OF 26 CELSIUS DEGREES ONLY), INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY CONSTRAINT IN HIGH LEVEL, POOR LOW LEVEL WARM AND WET TROPICAL AIR INFLOW IN THE NORTHERN PART. SO, DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY (THUNDERSTORM CLOUDS) IS WEAKENING AND IS REJECTED SOUTHEASTWARD, FAR FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THIS CIRCULATION IS TOTALLY DISYMETRIC , WITH STRONG WINDS LOCATED ONLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, MAINLY FAR FROM THE CENTER, DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, AND TO TNE INNER MOTION OF THE SYSTEM. THE MSLP (MINIMAL SEA LEVEL PRESSURE) IS ESTIMATED ACCORDING TO THE 53579 BUOY, WHICH HAS BEEN "CROSSED" BY THE LOW AT 00 UTC. THIS SYSTEM IS TRACKING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.