Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO22 FMEE 211200 SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 21/10/2008 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 021/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 21/10/2008 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (EX-ASMA) 998 HPA POSITION: 11.6S / 58.4E (ELEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 10 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDS UP FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTRHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, PARTICULARY UP TO 350 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS ONLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND FAR FROM THE CENTER, IN A MID-BELT LIMITATED BETWEEN 100NM RADIUS AND 300NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, REACHING LOCALLY GALE FORCE WINDS 35KT BETWEEN 130NM AND 250NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/10/22 AT 00 UTC: 11.3S / 55.9E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H, VALID 2008/10/22 AT 12 UTC: 11.1S / 53.4E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY UNDER THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF UNFAVORABLE FACTORS : POOR OCEAN CONTENT HEAT (UNSUFFICIENT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AT THE ORDER OF 26 CELSIUS DEGREES ONLY), INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY CONSTRAINT IN HIGH LEVEL, POOR LOW LEVEL WARM AND WET TROPICAL AIR INFLOW IN THE NORTHERN PART. SO, DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY (THUNDERSTORM CLOUDS) IS DISSIPATING AND IS REJECTED SOUTHEASTWARD, FAR FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THIS CIRCULATION IS TOTALLY DISYMETRIC , WITH STRONG WINDS LOCATED ONLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, MAINLY FAR FROM THE CENTER, DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, AND TO THE INNER MOTION OF THE SYSTEM. EXTENSION OF WINDS IS ESTIMATED ACCORDING QUIKSCAT 0222Z AND ASCAT 0559Z DATA. THIS SYSTEM IS TRACKING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, ABD IT SHOULD DISSIPATE PROGRESSIVELY (WITH POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL BURSTS OF ACTIVITY).