Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO22 FMEE 211800 SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 21/10/2008 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 022/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 21/10/2008 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 (EX-ASMA) 1003 HPA POSITION: 11.0S / 57.2E (ELEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 11 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDS FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, MAINLY BETWEEN 250 NM AND 350 NM IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20 KT, LOCALLY 25 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS, REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE BETWEEN 100 NM AND 200 NM FROM THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/10/22 AT 06 UTC: 10.9S / 54.2E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2008/10/22 AT 18 UTC: 11.0S / 52.0E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON WEAKENING WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. ASSOCIATED THUNDERY ACTIVITY IS LIMITED AND MAINLY EASTWARDS AWAY FAR FROM THE CENTRE. THIS CIRCULATION IS TOTALLY ASYMMETRIC , WITH STRONG WINDS ONLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, FAR FROM THE CENTER, DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, AND TO THE INNER MOTION OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS TRACKING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, AND SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.