Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO22 FMEE 230600 SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 23/10/2008 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 027/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 23/10/2008 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 (EX-ASMA) 1005 HPA POSITION: 10.7S / 49.9E (TEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER MAINLY EXISTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT, BETWEEN 100 NM AND 300 NM FROM THE CENTRE, AND ALONG THE EASTERN MALAGASY COAST, BETWEEN 13S AND 18S. CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/20 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS, LOCALLY REACHING 25 KT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT UP TO 300 NM FROM THE CENTRE, AND VERY LOCALLY NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OP MADAGASCAR. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/10/23 AT 18 UTC: 11.5S / 47.6E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2008/10/24 AT 06 UTC: 11.8S / 45.0E, MAX WIND = 15 KT, FILLING UP. OTHER INFORMATIONS: POSITION AT 0000Z RELOCATED NEAR 10.4S/50.8E (1 DEGREE IN THE NORTH-EAST) THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS FULLY EXPOSED AND REMAINS WEAK AND ASYMETRIC , WITH STRONG WINDS ONLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, TO THE INNER MOTION OF THE SYSTEM. WINDS EXTENSION HAS BEEN MEASURED THANKS TO RECENT SATELLITE DATA. THUNDERY ACTIVITY STILL EXISTS OVER THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR BUT REMAINS FULLY INORGANIZED . THIS SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON GENERALLY TRACKING WESTWARDS, GENERATING RAINFALLS - LOCALLY THUNDERY RAINFALLS -AND TEMPORARY INCREASING WINDS OVER THE NORTHEN TIP OF MADAGASCAR DURING THE NEXT 12H, AND THEN OVER THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO DURING NEXT NIGHT AND THE 24TH. THUNDERY ACTIVITY SHOULD FLARE UP, BEING MORE INTENSE DURING THE NIGHT THAN DURING THE DAY, BUT THE SYSTEM WILL NOT INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY. AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.