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B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
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WTIO22 FMEE 231200
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 23/10/2008 AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 028/02 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 23/10/2008 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 (EX-ASMA) 1007 HPA
POSITION: 11.2S / 48.8E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER MAINLY EXISTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT, BETWEEN 150 NM AND 250 NM FROM THE CENTRE.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/20 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS, LOCALLY REACHING 25 KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2008/10/24 AT 00 UTC:
11.2S / 46.4E, MAX WIND = 15 KT, FILLING UP.
24H, VALID 2008/10/24 AT 12 UTC:
10.7S / 43.4E, MAX WIND = 15 KT, FILLING UP.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION (LLCC) IS FULLY EXPOSED AND BECOMES DISORGANIZED. THE LLCC REMAINS WEAK AND ASYMETRIC , WITH STRONGER WINDS ONLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, AND TO THE INNER MOTION OF THE SYSTEM.

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON GENERALLY TRACKING WESTWARDS, GENERATING RAINFALLS - LOCALLY THUNDERY RAINFALLS -AND TEMPORARY INCREASING WINDS OVER THE NORTHEN TIP OF MADAGASCAR DURING THE NEXT HOURS, AND THEN OVER THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO DURING NEXT NIGHT AND THE 24TH.
THUNDERY ACTIVITY SHOULD FLARE UP, BEING MORE INTENSE DURING THE NIGHT THAN DURING THE DAY, BUT THE SYSTEM WILL NOT INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY.

THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING, UNLESS REINTENSIFICATION.