Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

WTIO22 FMEE 210600 SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 21/12/2008 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 022/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 21/12/2008 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4 (EX-CINDA) 1000 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9S / 60.0E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 140 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 350 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT . CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE CENTER REACHING LOCALLY 25 KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2008/12/21 AT 18 UTC: 15.2S / 59.4E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H, VALID 2008/12/22 AT 06 UTC: 15.8S / 59.2E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: LINKED TO THE WEAKENING INTENSITY, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOW VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCALISE. SOME AVAILABLE LAST NIGHT SATELLITE IMAGERY ALLOW TO RE-LOCALISE THE CENTER MORE NORTHERN THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVIOSORY. THIS PRESUMED CENTER HAS GLOBALLY TRACKED WESTWARDS SINCE 20/1800Z UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN EXISTING RIDGE OVER MADAGASCAR IN THE WAKE OF THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES AND SHOULD CONCERN THE SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE A NEW RECURVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS. A RE-INTENSIFICATION IS AT THIS NOT TIME NOT EXPECTED. STRONGER WINDS EXTEND ONLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.