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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/1/20052006
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 1

2.A POSITION 2005/09/05 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 2.9S / 88.7E
(TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 830 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/09/05 18 UTC: 03.7S/89.0E, MAX WIND=020KT.
24H: 2005/09/06 06 UTC: 04.2S/87.8E, MAX WIND=025KT.
36H: 2005/09/06 18 UTC: 04.9S/86.5E, MAX WIND=025KT.
48H: 2005/09/07 06 UTC: 05.9S/84.7E, MAX WIND=025KT.
60H: 2005/09/07 18 UTC: 06.0S/82.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.
72H: 2005/09/08 06 UTC: 06.1S/82.5E, MAX WIND=015KT, DISSIPATING.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
DEEP CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED DURING LAST 24 HOURS (CF SSMI 09/05/05 0046Z).
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GROW STRONGER IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY A FEW DAYS EAST FROM 80E WITHOUT DEEPENING SIGNIFICANTLY AND THEN DISSIPATE.
INTENSITY OF THESE SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.