Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/1/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 2.A POSITION 2005/09/05 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 4.5S / 86.4E (FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1001 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 660 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/09/06 00 UTC: 05.9S/84.9E, MAX WIND=030KT. 24H: 2005/09/06 12 UTC: 07.2S/83.4E, MAX WIND=035KT. 36H: 2005/09/07 00 UTC: 08.3S/81.7E, MAX WIND=040KT. 48H: 2005/09/07 12 UTC: 09.3S/79.9E, MAX WIND=040KT. 60H: 2005/09/08 00 UTC: 09.5S/78.5E, MAX WIND=035KT. 72H: 2005/09/08 12 UTC: 09.5S/77.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0- DEEP CONVECTION IS SCATTERED AND MAINLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. IN SPITE OF ITS LOCATION (NORTH OF 5S), LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IS WELL SUSTAINED POLARWARD BY A GOOD TRADE WINDS FLOW 30/35KT AND EQUATORWARD BY A WESTERLY FLOW AT 20/25KT. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS RATHER STRONG EQUATORWARD BUT IS WEAK TO MODERATE POLARWARD. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE ABOUT 27 TO 29°C FROM 10S TO THE EQUATOR. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ANALYSE THIS LOW AND DEEPEN IT SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY.