Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/1/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 2.A POSITION 2005/09/06 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.9S / 85.6E (FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/09/06 12 UTC: 07.0S/84.7E, MAX WIND=025KT. 24H: 2005/09/07 00 UTC: 08.0S/83.2E, MAX WIND=025KT. 36H: 2005/09/07 12 UTC: 08.9S/82.1E, MAX WIND=030KT. 48H: 2005/09/08 00 UTC: 09.9S/80.9E, MAX WIND=035KT. 60H: 2005/09/08 12 UTC: 10.9S/80.1E, MAX WIND=030KT. 72H: 2005/09/09 00 UTC: 11.8S/78.9E, MAX WIND=030KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5. CI=2.0- DEEP CONVECTION IS SCATTERED AND MAINLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IS WELL SUSTAINED POLARWARD BY A GOOD TRADE WINDS FLOW 30/35KT AND EQUATORWARD BY A WESTERLY FLOW AT 20/25KT. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS RATHER STRONG EQUATORWARD BUT IS WEAK TO MODERATE POLARWARD. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ANALYSE THIS LOW AND DEEPEN IT SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT TRACKS MORE SOUTHWARDS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY.