Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/1/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 2.A POSITION 2005/09/06 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.0S / 83.5E (EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/09/07 00 UTC: 09.1S/82.9E, MAX WIND=025KT. 24H: 2005/09/07 12 UTC: 10.4S/82.3E, MAX WIND=025KT. 36H: 2005/09/08 00 UTC: 11.7S/81.1E, MAX WIND=025KT. 48H: 2005/09/08 12 UTC: 12.5S/80.0E, MAX WIND=025KT. 60H: 2005/09/09 00 UTC: 13.4S/78.8E, MAX WIND=025KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BADLY DEFINED AND THE SYSTEM IS LESS ORGANIZED THANB YESTERDAY. CONDITIONS SEEM UNFAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. NEVERTHELESS, DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT AND UNDER DEEP CONVECTION, 25/30 KT FORCE WINDS STILL EXIST FAR FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ISSUED ABOUT THIS SYSTEM UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION.