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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/2/20052006
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2

2.A POSITION 2005/10/12 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.5S / 87.2E
(FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: SE: 300 SO: 300 NO:

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/10/12 18 UTC: 05.8S/86.6E, MAX WIND=025KT.
24H: 2005/10/13 06 UTC: 06.1S/86.0E, MAX WIND=025KT.
36H: 2005/10/13 18 UTC: 06.5S/85.5E, MAX WIND=025KT.
48H: 2005/10/14 06 UTC: 06.8S/84.8E, MAX WIND=025KT.
60H: 2005/10/14 18 UTC: 07.3S/83.8E, MAX WIND=030KT.
72H: 2005/10/15 06 UTC: 08.0S/83.0E, MAX WIND=030KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=1.5
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS STRONG NEAR THE SYSTEM BUT REMAINS FLUCTUANTING. THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY UNDERGOES AN UNFAVOURABLE NORTHWESTERN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT THIS CONSTRAINT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU=48.
SYSTEM #2 IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS THE TROUGH, INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY.