Back to the RSMC advisories list

Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

---

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/2/20052006
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2

2.A POSITION 2005/10/12 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 5.2S / 86.6E
(FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: SE: 300 SO: 300 NO:

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/10/13 00 UTC: 05.4S/86.0E, MAX WIND=025KT.
24H: 2005/10/13 12 UTC: 05.8S/85.5E, MAX WIND=025KT.
36H: 2005/10/14 00 UTC: 06.4S/84.9E, MAX WIND=025KT.
48H: 2005/10/14 12 UTC: 07.3S/84.0E, MAX WIND=025KT.
60H: 2005/10/15 00 UTC: 07.9S/83.0E, MAX WIND=025KT.
72H: 2005/10/15 12 UTC: 08.2S/81.8E, MAX WIND=025KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=1.5
SYSTEM NR 2 IS MOVING OVER SST REACHING 28 TO 29 DEGREES, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE AREA ; ALOFT, DIVERGENCE IS GOOD IN THE VICINITY OF A LARGE RIDGE. NEVERTHELESS, CONVECTION REMAINS FLUCTUATING AND CAN NOT CONSOLIDATE UNDER A RATHER STRONG NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ; THIS CONSTRAINT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS. MOST NWP MODELS ANALYZE THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE, TRACK IT SOUTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFYING IT SLIGHTLY.

FOR THE MOMENT, THE SYSTEM DOES NOT REQUIRE REGULAR ADVISORY ISSUANCE.