Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/2/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 2.A POSITION 2005/10/13 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.5S / 86.2E (SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S 0.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/10/13 18 UTC: 07.3S/85.4E, MAX WIND=025KT. 24H: 2005/10/14 06 UTC: 08.2S/84.5E, MAX WIND=025KT. 36H: 2005/10/14 18 UTC: 09.0S/83.5E, MAX WIND=025KT. 48H: 2005/10/15 06 UTC: 10.0S/82.5E, MAX WIND=025KT. 60H: 2005/10/15 18 UTC: 11.0S/81.5E, MAX WIND=025KT. 72H: 2005/10/16 06 UTC: 11.5S/80.5E, MAX WIND=025KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=1.5 LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE IS FULLY EXPOSED WEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION IS VERY FLUCTUATING IN ACTIVITY AND SPATIAL COVERAGE. MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR DOES NOT ALLOW ORGANIZATION. MOST NWP MODELS ANALYZE THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE, TRACK IT SOUTHWESTWARDS, WITHOUT DEEPENING IT SIGNIFICANTLY. SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.