Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/2/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 2.A POSITION 2005/10/13 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.8S / 85.5E (SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/10/14 00 UTC: 09.3S/84.2E, MAX WIND=025KT. 24H: 2005/10/14 12 UTC: 10.5S/83.0E, MAX WIND=025KT. 36H: 2005/10/15 00 UTC: 11.6S/81.3E, MAX WIND=030KT. 48H: 2005/10/15 12 UTC: 12.5S/79.6E, MAX WIND=030KT. 60H: 2005/10/16 00 UTC: 12.9S/78.0E, MAX WIND=025KT. 72H: 2005/10/16 12 UTC: 13.1S/76.0E, MAX WIND=025KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0- CONVECTION HAS REBUILT NEAR THE CENTRE OVER THE LAST HOURS, AS THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS DECREASED. HOWEVER, CONVECTION REMAINS VERY FLUCTUATING AND CAN BARELY CONSOLIDATE. MOST NWP MODELS ANALYZE THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE, TRACK IT SOUTHWESTWARDS. ARP/TROP ONLY DEEPENS IT SIGNIFICANTLY BEYOND 24 HOURS. SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.