Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/2/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 2 2.A POSITION 2005/10/14 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.5S / 83.5E (NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 300 SO: 400 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/10/14 12 UTC: 11.0S/82.3E, MAX WIND=030KT. 24H: 2005/10/15 00 UTC: 12.5S/81.0E, MAX WIND=030KT. 36H: 2005/10/15 12 UTC: 13.6S/79.4E, MAX WIND=025KT. 48H: 2005/10/16 00 UTC: 14.5S/77.5E, MAX WIND=025KT. 60H: 2005/10/16 12 UTC: 15.3S/75.7E, MAX WIND=025KT. 72H: 2005/10/17 00 UTC: 16.0S/74.0E, MAX WIND=025KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0- NO RECENT AVAILABLE MICROWAVE PICTURE TO HELP TO PRECISELY LOCATE THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION CENTRE. SYSTEM IS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WINDSHEAR IS WEAK AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD. CONVECTION EXISTS NEAR THE CENTRE BUT REMAINS VERY FLUCTUATING AND CAN BARELY CONSOLIDATE. MOST NWP MODELS ANALYZE THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE, TRACK IT SOUTHWESTWARDS, THEN WESTWARDS BEYOND 36 HOURS WITHOUT DEEPENING IT SIGNIFICANTLY. ONLY ARP/TROP DEEPENS IT SIGNIFICANTLY BEYOND 24 HOURS AND MAKE IT TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS.