Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/2/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 2.A POSITION 2005/10/14 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.3S / 82.2E (TEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 500 SO: 500 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/10/14 18 UTC: 11.8S/81.1E, MAX WIND=030KT. 24H: 2005/10/15 06 UTC: 13.1S/79.6E, MAX WIND=035KT. 36H: 2005/10/15 18 UTC: 13.9S/78.4E, MAX WIND=035KT. 48H: 2005/10/16 06 UTC: 14.3S/76.9E, MAX WIND=035KT. 60H: 2005/10/16 18 UTC: 14.5S/75.5E, MAX WIND=030KT. 72H: 2005/10/17 06 UTC: 14.6S/74.1E, MAX WIND=030KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5- DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED DURING THE LAST HOURS , IN RELATIONSHIP WITH WEAKENING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD AND BEGINS TO BE MATERIALIZED BY CIRRUS OUTFLOW ON THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM. SYSTEM BEGINS TO ORGANIZE AS A CURVED BAND PATTERN. MOST NWP MODELS ANALYZE THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION, TRACK IT SOUTHWESTWARDS, THEN WESTWARDS BEYOND 36 HOURS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES IT IS EXPECTED DEEPENING VERY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN WEAKENING WITHIN 48 TO 72 HOURS IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EXPECTED STRONGER NORTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.