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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/2/20052006
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2

2.A POSITION 2005/10/14 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.0S / 81.9E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 100 SE: 500 SO: 500 NO: 100

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/10/15 00 UTC: 12.3S/80.5E, MAX WIND=035KT.
24H: 2005/10/15 12 UTC: 13.5S/79.0E, MAX WIND=035KT.
36H: 2005/10/16 00 UTC: 14.1S/77.7E, MAX WIND=035KT.
48H: 2005/10/16 12 UTC: 14.4S/77.0E, MAX WIND=030KT.
60H: 2005/10/17 00 UTC: 14.7S/76.2E, MAX WIND=025KT.
72H: 2005/10/17 12 UTC: 15.1S/75.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5-
DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUE BEEING CYCLIC BUT STILL SHOWS A CURVED BAND PATTERN ORGANIZATION.
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS WEAK UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD (CIRRUS CLOUDS MATERIALIZE THE GOOD NORTHERLY OUTLOW CHANNEL).
GEOGRAPHICS WINDS REPARTITION REMAINS NON-SYMETRIC (CF 0053UTC QUIKSCAT SWAT).
LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IS WELL SUSTAINED BY A GOOD NORTHERLY TRANS-EQUATORIAL FLOW IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE SYSTEM.
MOST NWP MODELS ANALYZE THIS LOW, TRACK IT SOUTHWESTWARDS, THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND 36 HOURS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES
IT IS EXPECTED DEEPENING VERY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN WEAKENING WITHIN 48 TO 72 HOURS IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EXPECTED STRONGER NORTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND A LESS ENERGETIC ENVIRONMENT WEST OF 80E AND SOUTH OF 14S (CF DEPTH 26°c OF NOAA).