Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/2/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 2.A POSITION 2005/10/14 AT 1800 UTC : 11.4S / 81.2E (ELEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 600 SO: 450 NO: 120 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/10/15 06 UTC: 12.5S/80.0E, MAX WIND=035KT. 24H: 2005/10/15 18 UTC: 13.6S/78.5E, MAX WIND=035KT. 36H: 2005/10/16 06 UTC: 14.1S/77.4E, MAX WIND=035KT. 48H: 2005/10/16 18 UTC: 14.4S/76.7E, MAX WIND=030KT. 60H: 2005/10/17 06 UTC: 14.8S/76.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 72H: 2005/10/17 18 UTC: 15.3S/75.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5 DEEP CONVECTION IS REINFORCING THIS NIGHT AND STILL SHOWS A CURVED BAND PATTERN. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS WEAK AND DIVERGENCE IS GOOD UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. GEOGRAPHICS WINDS REPARTITION REMAINS NON-SYMETRIC (CF LAST DESCENDING QUIKSCAT PASS). LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IS WELL SUSTAINED BY A GOOD NORTHERLY TRANS-EQUATORIAL FLOW IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE SYSTEM. MOST NWP MODELS ANALYZE THIS LOW, TRACK IT SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES IT IS EXPECTED DEEPENING VERY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN WEAKENING WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EXPECTED STRONGER NORTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND A LESS ENERGETIC ENVIRONMENT WEST OF 80E AND SOUTH OF 14S (CF DEPTH 26°c OF NOAA).