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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/2/20052006
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2

2.A POSITION 2005/10/15 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.1S / 80.8E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 120 SE: 600 SO: 450 NO: 120

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2005/10/15 12 UTC: 14.1S/79.7E, MAX WIND=035KT.
24H: 2005/10/16 00 UTC: 14.8S/78.5E, MAX WIND=030KT.
36H: 2005/10/16 12 UTC: 15.3S/76.9E, MAX WIND=030KT.
48H: 2005/10/17 00 UTC: 15.5S/75.6E, MAX WIND=025KT.
60H: 2005/10/17 12 UTC: 15.5S/74.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING.
72H: 2005/10/18 00 UTC: 15.5S/72.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5- AND CI=2.5
CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCALISED MORE SOUTHERN (CF AQUA-1 2010 UTC) AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED DURING THE LAST HOURS INSPITE OF A SILL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS WEAK AND DIVERGENCE IS GOOD UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
GEOGRAPHICS WINDS REPARTITION REMAINS NON-SYMETRIC (CF LAST DESCENDING QUIKSCAT PASS).
LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IS WELL SUSTAINED BY A GOOD NORTHERLY TRANS-EQUATORIAL FLOW IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE SYSTEM.
MOST NWP MODELS ANALYZE THIS LOW, TRACK IT SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITHOUT DEEPEN IT SIGNIFICANTLY AND THEN RECURVE WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES RE-BUILDING BY THE SOUTHWEST.
IT SHOULD THEN BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE IN A UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT N RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EXPECTED STRONGER NORTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND A LESS ENERGETIC ENVIRONMENT (CF DEPTH 26°c OF NOAA).